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Posted by Michael Bulatovich on August 18, 2007, 4:43 pm
> On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 14:06:55 -0400, in a place far, far away, "Michael
> such a way as to indicate that:
>
>>
>>> On Sat, 18 Aug 2007 08:37:00 -0400, "Michael Bulatovich"
>>>
>>>>We've got to be approaching the end of the line for the shuttle...How
>>>>many
>>>>more missions are planned with it?
>>>
>>> 14.
>>
>>Ouch. What are the bookies saying about the chances of another
>>catastrophe?
>
> The "bookies" don't know much about it. If you think that there's a
> one in a hundred chance per flight, the probability would be about
> 13%. If you think it's two in a hundred, it's about one in four. I
> think it's actually less than one in a hundred per flight, so the
> chances of losing another one are pretty small in the remaining
> fourteen flights.
Be that as it may, these guys make odds that generally win for themselves.
My (uninformed) sense is that shuttle missions have been meeting with more
regular damage requiring repairs or burials than when the vehicles were new.
Most of them have around the same mileage, don't they?
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