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The real housing crisis is one of quantity

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The real housing crisis is one of quantity Enough Already 04-19-2008
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Posted by Mark M. on April 21, 2008, 8:49 am
RogerDodger wrote:
>
>
>
>>The key to understanding the housing bubble is understanding what drives up
>>land prices. The OP is correct in saying that new construction was over
>>done. The reason is rising land value, but why did land values double and
>>redouble since the 1980's?...
>
>
> The Shiller home price index shows home prices in the 20 major urban
> areas rose a real 21% during the 15 years 1987-2002 -- a tad more than
> 1% a year.
>
> So much for "double and double again".
>
> This is entirely consistent with Shiller's data showing home price
> appreciation barely exceeding inflation, appreciating by about 0.5%
> real per year, for the last century.
>
> Which is entirely consistent with USDA/NASS price index of all
> farmland in the US, which shows land prices across the great bulk of
> the US barely matching inflation, appreciating by about 0.5% real per
> year, for the last century.
>
> These indices show land value hasn't doubled even once in the last 100
> years, much less gone "double and double again" since the 1980s.
>
> Georgists. ;-)
>
> There's their world and there's ours.

Yours and Shiller's? LOL

Real estate price appreciation barely matching inflation? What a joke.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2757699799528285056

Mark M.

>
> Put your money in land, then do nothing as a landowner but wait for it
> to appreciate in value ... and die broke. ;-(
>
> As to the home price boom, it has been *world wide* -- Britain,
> France, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, China, all around the globe,
> and in several foreign nations it's been much *bigger* than in the US
> -- and it has all happened everywhere simultaneously in the last six
> years.
>
> So a different explanation is called for, other than repitition of ye
> olde fact-free Georgist creed.

Posted by on April 22, 2008, 8:00 pm
wrote:

>
>>The key to understanding the housing bubble is understanding what drives up
>>land prices. The OP is correct in saying that new construction was over
>>done. The reason is rising land value, but why did land values double and
>>redouble since the 1980's?...
>
>The Shiller home price index shows home prices in the 20 major urban
>areas rose a real 21% during the 15 years 1987-2002 -- a tad more than
>1% a year.
>
>So much for "double and double again".
>
>This is entirely consistent with Shiller's data showing home price
>appreciation barely exceeding inflation, appreciating by about 0.5%
>real per year, for the last century.

I proved years ago that the Shiller index is designed to hide land
value increases.

See if you can figure out how before I explain it to you. It will be
a good test of your willingness and ability actually to think for a
change. I'm not hopeful.

>Which is entirely consistent with USDA/NASS price index of all
>farmland in the US, which shows land prices across the great bulk of
>the US barely matching inflation, appreciating by about 0.5% real per
>year, for the last century.
>
>These indices show land value hasn't doubled even once in the last 100
>years, much less gone "double and double again" since the 1980s.
>
>Georgists. ;-)

Georgists are at least willing to know the facts.

>There's their world and there's ours.
>
>Put your money in land, then do nothing as a landowner but wait for it
>to appreciate in value ... and die broke. ;-(

LOL! As if everyone reading this doesn't know landowners who have sat
on land and made out like bandits!

>As to the home price boom, it has been *world wide* -- Britain,
>France, Spain, Australia, New Zealand, China, all around the globe,
>and in several foreign nations it's been much *bigger* than in the US
>-- and it has all happened everywhere simultaneously in the last six
>years.

Of course, your claims are all false. Japan had its big land boom in
the 70s and 80s, and has experienced no significant housing price
inflation in the last several years. Certainly there have been
housing booms in a number of countries, but that's simply because the
same factors have been operating, especially cheap credit and
extravagant subsidies to landowning.

>So a different explanation is called for, other than repitition of ye
>olde fact-free Georgist creed.

"Fact-free" would be a good description of a land price index that
shows real land prices not doubling in 100 years.

-- Roy L

Posted by Pat on April 19, 2008, 9:56 pm
> The REAL housing crisis is that TOO MANY of them are being built every
> day, bad mortgages or not. Mindless overpopulation (75 million
> annually, worldwide) is treated as natural. Nature is treated as
> expendable.
>
> People go about their business, talking about money and investments,
> as if the land itself is infinite. They always claim there's "plenty
> of land" but won't say relative to what. Unaffected acreage decreases
> literally each second.
>
> http://images.google.com/images?hl=3Den&q=3Dhuman+footprint+map
>
> "Economic growth" means more people and less nature each day, with
> money creating a false measure of value in the process. A true housing
> "bubble" is an entire round hill covered with them.
>
> Real estate developers use money made from cannibalized land to
> cannibalize even more land. The word FINITE is missing from too many
> vocabularies.
>
> E.A.
>
> http://enough_already.tripod.com/
>
> Housing starts are a leading indicator of mindless growth.

E.A. Enough already. Take your dribble someplace else. You have a
long history is alt.planning.urban. You're a troll. And you're not
even good at that. Stop your cross posting. Better yet, stop your
posting.

Posted by Dioclese on April 20, 2008, 1:05 am
> The REAL housing crisis is that TOO MANY of them are being built every
> day, bad mortgages or not. Mindless overpopulation (75 million
> annually, worldwide) is treated as natural. Nature is treated as
> expendable.
>
> People go about their business, talking about money and investments,
> as if the land itself is infinite. They always claim there's "plenty
> of land" but won't say relative to what. Unaffected acreage decreases
> literally each second.
>
> http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=human+footprint+map
>
> "Economic growth" means more people and less nature each day, with
> money creating a false measure of value in the process. A true housing
> "bubble" is an entire round hill covered with them.
>
> Real estate developers use money made from cannibalized land to
> cannibalize even more land. The word FINITE is missing from too many
> vocabularies.
>
> E.A.
>
> http://enough_already.tripod.com/
>
> Housing starts are a leading indicator of mindless growth.

I like the thread so far. Only one stayed in the context you presented.
The other 2 went with the money synopsis thing, went somewhere else instead
of addressing the issues you presented. Kinda like politics.

See if I can even it out 50/50 for now (most won't address overpopulation
anyway, so its for now).

All our big problems are a of an ever increasing population nature. Both
nationwide and world-wide. The economy relies on a contigent of an ever
increasing population as starters. As population slows, the only
alternative is to take more from the current population. As the finite is
understood. Either way, we pay.
--
Dave

Hypocrisy. Big SUV, filament lights on all night. You think your neighbor
should be changiing to compact fluorescent light bulbs and driving the
hybrid.



Posted by Andy Energy on May 8, 2008, 9:48 am
On Apr 19, 10:05=A0pm, "Dioclese" <NONE> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > The REAL housing crisis is that TOO MANY of them are being built every
> > day, bad mortgages or not. Mindless overpopulation (75 million
> > annually, worldwide) is treated as natural. Nature is treated as
> > expendable.
>
> > People go about their business, talking about money and investments,
> > as if the land itself is infinite. They always claim there's "plenty
> > of land" but won't say relative to what. Unaffected acreage decreases
> > literally each second.
>
> >http://images.google.com/images?hl=3Den&q=3Dhuman+footprint+map
>
> > "Economic growth" means more people and less nature each day, with
> > money creating a false measure of value in the process. A true housing
> > "bubble" is an entire round hill covered with them.
>
> > Real estate developers use money made from cannibalized land to
> > cannibalize even more land. The word FINITE is missing from too many
> > vocabularies.
>
> > E.A.
>
> >http://enough_already.tripod.com/
>
> > Housing starts are a leading indicator of mindless growth.
>
> I like the thread so far. =A0Only one stayed in the context you presented.=

> The other 2 went with the money synopsis thing, went somewhere else instea=
d
> of addressing the issues you presented. =A0Kinda like politics.
>
> See if I can even it out 50/50 for now (most won't address overpopulation
> anyway, so its for now).
>
> All our big problems are a of an ever increasing population nature. =A0Bot=
h
> nationwide and world-wide. =A0The economy relies on a contigent of an ever=

> increasing population as starters. =A0As population slows, the only
> alternative is to take more from the current population. =A0As the finite =
is
> understood. =A0Either way, we pay.
> --
> Dave
>
> Hypocrisy. =A0Big SUV, filament lights on all night. =A0You think your nei=
ghbor
> should be changiing to compact fluorescent light bulbs and driving the
> hybrid.- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -

Dave, love your Hypocrisy. Lets add home that consume 80-90% more
than they sould at present. With the progress of the buildign science
we should soon be able to easly get the net consumption to Zero.

Yes I do practice what I preach. I drive a hybrid, my electric bill
has been a -$100 each of the last 6 years (yes that is a minus). My
highest gas bill las winter was around $80 and that is at $1.49 a
therm (CCF). My house is a modest 1,500 sq ft for two people. Each
year I do another project to reduce our usage. Since the house is
built it gets harder to fix the rest of the items. In new
construction it would have beed easy and inexpensice to fix.

Andy

Think, Whole House Performance, it is the right thing to do....

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